Gendernomics: The Margin of Safety

The margin of safety is a concept that has been popularized by various value investors, among them Warren Buffet and Seth Klarman, which is centered upon reviewing investments from a risk averse perspective. While many investors tend to review their investments from the perspective of growth potential, future market potential or various macro-centered models, these investors seek to find characteristics in the investment that acts as protection should their valuation be flawed, or future expectations not materialize. The earlier examples tended to be centered on assets that the company held that could be liquidated in order to ensure that the loss they had to take was minimal.

As time went on, investors such as Buffet changed their focus to alternative margins of safety, such as company reputations, market positions, barriers to entry and various other less tangible elements. For instance, the major margin of safety in the Coca Cola Company is the market position and brand recognition that the company has spent decades building since its inception. This concept of the margin of safety is very applicable in the sexual market place, and one of the major arguments in this post deals with how women are naturally wired to seek margins of safety in their market transactions.

The Female Margin of Safety

It’s quite a common observation in the manosphere that women are inherently hypergamous, a function of  this is attempting to maximize the value of their sexuality over time, illustrated by among others branch-swinging and maintaining a stable of orbiters. This offers them a margin of safety as well, the orbiters being potential future mates, or pawns in her machinations and branch swinging being a methodology for maximizing value. A woman dating a man who eclipses her sexual market value by 1 – 3 points, widely cited as being the “sweet spot” [2], the optimal ratio cited by Rational Male from Heartiste being 2:1. This represents a margin of safety for the woman, a ratio of 1:1 offers no margin of safety, and does not represent a woman maximizing her sexual value, as both the woman and the man has the same SMV.

The man being higher SMV, in addition to the SMV curve assists a woman in building a solid margin of safety when she seeks a long term relationship. A prolonged dating period prior to locking down the relationship, where the woman requires that the man demonstrates his value in terms of financial prospects for instance, is a resource-centric “shit-test“, where her demands slowly increase to establish his true financial worth. A normal shit-test seeks to evaluate the man’s frame, and serves to elevate, reduce or maintain his value, this is the same purpose that financial, comfort or loyalty tests seek to do in their areas.

I talked about how women are naturally prone towards engaging in various forms of risk management within the sexual market place in a previous essay, and the ability of a woman to risk manage results in the totality of her margin of safety. If she secures a man who has a sexual market value 1 – 3 points above hers, her valuation can be off by up to 2 points and still represent a satisfactory trade for hypergamy.

The Male Margin of Safety

The central aspect of the blue pill framework is idealism. They view women and the world in a light where they depart from rational and logical evaluation of options, to veneration in the form of oneitis. This is perhaps a symptom of the present social narratives that have tended to cast women in a very favorable light, where the many less desirable, yet more reality-oriented female qualities are swept under the rug or re-framed. We are living in a time where merely suggesting that a woman has a less than moral intent is a source of various shaming tactics to force men to conform to the narratives.

The concept of romantic love being “unconditional”, above reason, and apart from the very rules that govern every other aspect of our lives is another contributing factor, making it a distinct entity on par with other human-constructs held as being beyond empiricism and pragmatism. Thus, few men seek a margin of safety when evaluating a woman for a potential mate, which is a source of many lives lived in quiet desperation. Value investors frequently look to previous company performance, in some cases going back decades as advised originally by Benjamin Graham, holding the view that past performance, while not something which can be extrapolated forward linearly, does give indicators of future performance.

This stems from the position that companies, much like people rarely change drastically, and the reactions in past situations is a great indicator of reactions in future situations. This also has the added effect of removing the influence of recent events, which may affect the performance in one direction or another. If a company has paid a dividend for the past 80 quarters, odds are they will also do so in the future. While a man may drastically change himself in an incremental fashion, and as part of this change his future performance may deviate greatly from his past performance, female change takes a different form, where she appears to radically change in a short-term fashion, yet little to no long-term change manifests.

For this reason, women are often quick to frame their “new self” as their “true self” and their past self merely a consequence of circumstance outside of her control. “It just happened“, “I’m different now“, “I used to be a bit of a party girl, but I changed” and various other platitudes are utilized to dissuade the man from judging her based on her historical performance, and instead embracing her present manifestation. This is the equivalent of valuing a company with a 100 year history based on the last quarterly report.

Men are complicit in women being able to execute such maneuvers because they want them to be true.

Establishing a Margin of Safety

For a man to establish a margin of safety he must reject his conception of love, and be cognizant of the female conception of love. Rollo Tomassi outlines the difference when he writes:

The confusion Blue Pill men have is presuming that men’s idealistic concept is the mutually accepted one. This then wars with women’s natural opportunistic concept; and by extension her intrinsic need to optimize Hypergamy. [2]

For the woman, love is a means to an end, for a blue pill man, love is an end in itself. Thus, she seeks to establish a margin of safety in order to ensure that her true end will be enabled, whereas he seeks no margin of safety, because to him the relationship is the finish-line not a starting point. The intelligent investor seeks to establish a margin of safety through a solid analysis of the past and present based on factors that are as empirical as possible, furthermore, he seeks to clear his mind of undue influence so that his reasoning will be as clear as possible. However, most men do not view their liaisons with women through the lens of an investor.

Most value investors focus on four major areas when attempting to establish their margin of safety, historical performance, protective barriers, complexity and macro-factors.

Historical Performance

The historical performance of a company or a person is an important factor, as both companies and people establish patterns over time, that are difficult to change. A company that has paid a dividend for the past 50 years is likely to continue doing so, just as a woman who has cheated in all of her past relationships is likely to do so in her future ones as well. A woman who has a string of short-term relationships, is demonstrating that there is something inherent to her that ensures that relationships do not last very long. This is one of the red flags I outlined in an earlier essay on Cluster-B women in relationships. Studies have also demonstrated that women with a higher number of sexual partners before marriage are more likely to get divorced [3], thus this is a risk for which a man must account.

Humans can change over time, however inborn patterns require a massive effort to change and doing so often takes as long as establishing them did. Many people also end up managing their old patterns rather than eliminating them, thus they are always present beneath the surface, due for a flare up at any given time.

Protective Barriers

This is a general area, that covers various barriers that protects future performance. A company with a strong brand-name, will be protected in a downwards business cycle because of their brand value. Much in the same manner, a woman who is surrounded by a wholesome social community is less likely to engage in poor behaviors. A married woman who is the only married girl in her group of “fun, single girls”, is more likely to engage in, and be encouraged to engage in behavior that harms her relationship by her peer group.

Complexity

The complexity aspect comes from the simple facts that the more moving parts are involved in a situation, the more complex and thus prone to error the situation becomes. In a Gendernomics context this includes the protective barriers above, however the more dangerous moving parts include the woman’s penchant for drama, her ability to maintain stable relationships not only with her man, but with other people in her life, her psychological stability and general personality profile.

One must consider that a woman’s family plays a very important part in her life, regardless of if she is in contact with them or not as they have shaped many of the mechanisms to which she will default. In addition, any mental issues that exist in her family, especially if they are of the Cluster-B variety must be considered due to their heritability.

Other important factors include such things as travel by herself, or having to be in situations that are not conducive to the long-term relationships, for instance if she works conventions or night clubs where she has ample opportunities to engage in behavior unbecoming of a long-term partner.

Macro Factors

I’ve covered macro factors extensively in earlier essays, and they boil down to the factors that influence the context of the relationship. Within investments, a bullish cycle will tend to better the valuation of most companies, whereas a bearish turn will tend to reduce the valuation of most companies due to a general sentiment that has little to do with direct company performance. The environment in the Western World, at present is not conducive to stable, long-term relationships due to prevailing social veneration of instant gratification, self-over-community, a constant chase for self-actualization and various other factors.

The existence of no-fault divorce, and the “I’m not happy” factor, exacerbated by things such as divorce parties. The redistribution of wealth taking place every day in a family court system that seeks to enrich women at the cost of men, and the fact that no social stigma is attached to being divorced multiple times for no other reason than “he didn’t make me happy”, is not conducive to maintaining relationships.

Summary and Conclusions

If the concept of the margin of safety is to be summed up briefly, it comes down to a scenario analysis of the absolute worst case scenario and the consequences thereof, the margin of safety represents the buffer that the investor seeks to protect his assets against such a scenario.

In the Gendernomics book, I outlined the tendency of men to live in perpetual under-demand throughout most of their teens and twenties within the sexual market place. The consequence of this is that once women reach their epiphany phase and start seeking a beta provider, these men are all too eager to step up to the plate and take a swing at an old party girl. When the guy who has gotten little to no attention for his first 15 years in the sexual market place, suddenly find himself getting attention from women that he perceives as way out of his league, and who would not give him the time of day a few years earlier, he things he is being rewarded for being a “good boy” all his life.

Normally, when such a drastic change takes place, one would react with natural, healthy suspicion, and wonder what the underlying motive is, however in the sexual market place, men tend to not look a gift-whore in the mouth. They make a rapid system 1 conclusion that due to her becoming more mature, she finally realizes that the “alpha jerk-boys” she spent her time under for her first 15 years in the sexual market place, are not the type of man she is deserving of, and she is now mature enough to appreciate a “good guy”. A conclusion the woman is all too happy to support and agree with.

These men are often the men who have “done everything right“, dutiful, thrifty, coldly rational, hardworking and ambitious, rule-followers who have lived in the blue pill illusion that they will be rewarded for their virtuous actions. They are as Rollo Tomassi beautifully put it, “The Betas in Waiting”. Which is not to say that “Red pilled” men cannot fall for the same gambit, many men who proclaim to be red pilled harbor a little bit of hope that they may still have the blue pill fantasy as they envisioned it, history is quite full of men who embody the interesting cognitive dissonance of understanding game, yet never having internalized red pill truth.

In both cases, a margin of safety should be sought, to ensure that one does not take on insurmountable unexpected risk. One must always be mindful of the fact that divorce court and family court serve to transfer resources from men to women, and that a short-term marriage can have long-term consequences.

Gendernomics is now available on Amazon.com

Sources:

[1] https://therationalmale.com/2013/06/20/smv-ratios-attachment/

[2] https://therationalmale.com/2017/04/17/blue-pill-conditioning-and-equalism/

[3] https://ifstudies.org/blog/counterintuitive-trends-in-the-link-between-premarital-sex-and-marital-stability/

[4] https://therationalmale.com/2015/03/24/betas-in-waiting/

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