Gendernomics: On Value Part 5

This is the 5th and final part of a 5 part essay. Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4

My reason behind writing this essay was to demonstrate the many factors  that goes into determining a person’s sexual market value, and why one will never be able to create an iron-clad framework to ensure 100% success rate. While some argue that economics is perhaps not the ideal system to apply to the mating market, due to the irrational nature of human mating decisions, I do not consider human mating decisions to be irrational. In my view, humans act in the mating market as rational actors, meaning that they are goal oriented, reflective and consistent as opposed to being irrational, namely random, impulsive, conditioned or imitative [1]. For example, most people tend to have a “type” of partner that they display a preference for, which demonstrates consistency. There is a tendency for people to act in a goal oriented manner seeking out partners based on a range of characteristics such as relationship type, partner type or various others. People tend to reflect as they gain experience on which characteristics they do not want in a partner as well as which characteristics they want, which demonstrates reflective evaluation.

If partner choice was truly a case of being random, impulsive, conditioned and based on imitation, one would not expect to see many if any patterns, yet every piece of advice written on how to improve ones romantic life is based on the observation of patterns. However, one must keep in mind that rational behavior as per rational choice theory, is not the same as conscious and deliberate behavior. When an economist uses the term “The rational actor” he is not stating that people consciously sit down and compare the specifications of every single vacuum cleaner that is available to them, list out their choice criteria in a bullet point list, weigh them out, evaluate each product against the choice criteria and his budget for a new vacuum cleaner. He is stating that people evaluate their options and elect the one that is utility maximizing often subconsciously, and demonstrate a preference over time.

My goal was to elaborate on some of the underlying factors that affect such largely sub-conscious evaluations that we conduct every single day and that affect our mating behaviors. As I was writing this essay, it started to become clear that creating an iron-clad, objective system for valuation within the sexual market place is somewhat of an impossibility. While it is entirely possible to outline the major variables that will be involved on both sides in such an equation, and while it is also possible to understand the aggregate level strategies of both men and women, the interaction between variables is infinitely complex. Furthermore, the inherent limitations of rational choice theory, have been covered by authors such as Daniel Kahneman and other researchers into decision theory, and to put this in the terms Kahneman utilizes in his book “Thinking fast and Thinking slow”, a majority of mating decisions are most likely made using system 1. [2]

Predictable vs. Probabilistic

Some of the factors that play into a female valuation of a man as a prospective sexual partner include ovulatory shifts, her age, her social status, her life-stage and various others. While educated guesses can often be very accurate, the fact of the matter is that the only way to determine if a woman is receptive is to approach and screen her. One cannot determine whether a prospective buyer is interested in the product until contact is made on some level with the buyer, even if that buyer fits the target demographic and consumer group one has defined. One can identify market groups that tend to display interest and thus target them for more aggressive sales and marketing, and probabilistically speaking one will have a higher degree of success with targeted as opposed to randomly marketing a product to the population. This is probabilistic rather than deterministic, and as I spoke of in the NaXALT error, “Not all X are like that, but all X have a higher probability of being like that”.

To structure a process that to some extent will lead to predictable outcomes, it is necessary to begin in the aggregate, it is very difficult, if not impossible to predict the action of a single human, but with large enough sample sizes, it is possible to predict the actions of groups. Thus, if one can identify the choice criteria utilized in a purchasing process, then one can engage in deliberate action to satisfy a majority of those choice criteria to a larger degree than the competition. This is in many ways how companies go about designing a product for a new market, identify a need, identify the salient criteria of a product that would be desired by that market, prototype/test market, and then analyze the results.

Marketers and product designers are well aware of the fact that a product will not be valued equally across every demographic and consumer group, the goal is to either target a narrow group, or to target the mass market. In niche product design, one seeks to learn as much as possible about one consumer group and then to create a product that would be tailored very specifically to appeal to that group, meaning that it would represent very high value to that group. Alternatively, if one seeks mass market appeal one would seek to create a product that appeals to the most general and shared characteristics of a group and avoids those characteristics that are controversial. Restaurants represent a very good example of both approaches where there are mass market products such as major fast food chains, which few people would hold up as their favorite, but which a diverse group can agree to utilize because the offers have no characteristics that any group find excessively disagreeable.

There are also niche products such as expensive gourmet restaurants that appeal to a very narrow market, but seek to create massive value for their targeted group. A Michelin restaurant is expensive, often avant garde, often has low-volume for money, and requires an advanced palate in order to see the value being offered. This means that many will eliminate it as an option based on price, some for the upper-class atmosphere, some on a value perspective and some due to the food being “advanced” or “over-engineered. This is the intent of the business.

A Deterministic Solution to a Probabilistic Problem

Many men find the manosphere after searching for solutions to a specific problem, in many cases how to make themselves an offer their one-itis cannot refuse. This is the equivalent of asking someone “How do I design a product that represents an offer of value that my one targeted customer cannot refuse“. While it is possible to do so in very generic terms, for instance everyone would accept an offer of value in exchange for nothing, this does not represent a realistic offer, there is simply no such thing as a free lunch. Perhaps the best example is that companies such as Facebook and Google that offer “free” infrastructure monetize the data they gather from their “users”. If a company offers something for free, then you are the product.

This is in many ways what men offer women when they agree to a “lets just be friends” proposition from the woman. The woman is stating “I’m not going to offer a return, but you are free to invest in me“. The man front-loads investment in the woman, expecting a return that will never come.

The various characteristics that I covered in this essay, from the various applicable definitions of value, that we often use interchangeable in daily dialogue. For instance, if one were to say that a woman is a 10, does one mean “She is in the top 10% of women worldwide based on the following criteria” which would be an objective valuation, or is one saying “She is in the top 10% of women worldwide for me, based on my subjective choice criteria”, which is a subjective valuation.

The major problem faced by the engineer minded man is that he is seeking an objective solution to a subjective problem. In order to reduce the probability of rejection to zero, every woman would have to have identical choice criteria, weighted in the exact same manner, be in the same context, think in the exact same manner, be at the same stage of her ovulatory cycle, have the same tangible and intangible asset preferences and so on. This is obviously an impossibility. While science has been able to identify some preferences that women have for qualities in men, these differ based factors among others intent (Short term vs long-term mating). Thus, a man who is a perfect fit when the woman is in the follicular phase may not be in the lutheal phase.

The eternal downside of positivist research,  one can arrive conclusively at an answer, but that answer is merely a fact based on a large sample size. From this answer one can derive a probability, but depending on the probability itself it may not guarantee an outcome. One can state that “90% of women want a man with a sense of humor”, but this is no guarantee that the specific oneitis of a man wants a man with a sense of humor. General advice can be offered, be in shape, in control of your emotions and your psychology, climb a dominance hierarchy, and many others, but this merely increases the probability that someone in your intended market will find your offer enticing, not that everyone in your target market will, or that they’ll accept the offer.

This search for an objective solution to a subjective problem is in essence the attempt to eliminate probability of failure, and thus risk. One could theorize that this is perhaps due to catastrophizing the consequences of rejection, as Mystery once put it, hitting on a wrong woman in a stone age tribe could get you kicked out of the tribe or killed. Alternatively, it could be due to viewing the world on a binary scale, where there is no step between novice and master.

Summary and Conclusion

The Rational Male is fond of referring to the red pill as a Praxeology, which comes from a combination of “Praxis” meaning “deed or action”, and “logia” meaning “study of”, thus, praxeology means “the study of actions or deeds”. My own familiarity with this methodology of research is due to having studied Austrian economics, where praxeology and the action axiom underlies much of the research, and can be summarized as “Human beings over time utilize means to achieve desired ends”. As Mises states it:

Human action is purposeful behavior. Or we may say: Action is will put into operation and transformed into an agency, is aiming at ends and goals, is the ego’s meaningful response to stimuli and to the conditions of its environment, is a person’s conscious adjustment to the state of the universe that determines his life. Such paraphrases may clarify the definition given and prevent possible misinterpretations. But the definition itself is adequate and does not need complement of commentary. [4]

Research tends to fall into one of two broad categories, positivism and interpretivist. Writing an exhaustive essay outlining every difference between these two approaches is itself a monumental task, however the main differences are summarized in the following table:

For instance, one can establish that female mating behavior changes depending on the ovulatory cycle [5]. It can be established in an objective sense whether a woman is ovulating or not, her behaviors can be empirically observed in both cases within a reasonable controlled environment, and thus one can arrive at a clear cause and effect chain.

Around the time of ovulation, a female’s preference apparently shifts from avoiding negligent parenting to acquiring the best genes for her offspring. At other points during the cycle, women will prefer more feminized male faces, as they might signal a higher willingness of the males to invest in offspring.” [6]

From this we know that if a woman is menstruating, her risk preference changes from “long-term security” to “high quality genetics”, the latter demonstrated through a preference for more masculine faces. This is positivist research establishing a cause and effect chain.I imagine that one could use hypotheses:

0 (Null hypothesis) Ovulation has no effect on what facial traits women find attractive

1 Ovulation has an effect on what facial traits women find attractive

This would be the initial hypotheses, and then once it has been established that menstruation has an effect on which facial features women find the most attractive, one can go deeper into the research.

However, if one wanted to do more research into the effects of menstruation, for instance how the results of the positivist research manifests in the real world, one would have to begin by looking into various other factors. For instance, while this may be a universal feature in the female firmware, the actions that women take as a result of the motivation may differ.

For instance a woman in a western society who is in a relationship may plan a “Girl’s night out”, single women may become more active on Tinder. Each one of these will have different thresholds for infidelity, differing preference profiles, and otherwise be influenced by a range of factors not covered by the positivist research. In essence, the research tells us the fact “Women are more attracted to masculine faces during ovulation” but understanding the nature of, and benefits of it is not something positivist research can accomplish.

This is where the structure of red pill thinking comes in, positivist research establishes that women during ovulation are more motivated to seek out high quality genetic mates. The red pill theorist then observes the action of women in the field and formulates a theory, such as “During ovulation women undertake [set of actions] as a means to the end of seeking out high quality genetic mates.” If this is true, then if he demonstrates the traits that women associate with high quality genetic mates, he will achieve a higher degree of success with women in this state. However, as there are many women who do girl’s night out without ovulating, or perhaps not every girl in a group is ovulating, some have social, cultural or other traits that hinder them in cheating or engaging in casual sex or various others, just because she is ovulating and seeking out partners, does not guarantee a sale.

As this post has moved from defining forms of value, and there existing both objective and subjective value (part 1), where the focus was to establish the terminology and analytical frameworks that had to be considered as influences when judging types of value. These types of value being both of a tangible and intangible nature (part 2), filtered through various levels of multipliers such as game, and context (part 3). The essay turned towards looking at the characteristics of subjective judgments of value, such as choice criteria that are to some extent shared but also personalized, and furthermore, how concrete judgments based upon some form of externally defined value differs from value judgments, meaning those that relate to “good” and “evil (part 4). The final section of part 4 named “The Sexual Stock Market” sought to demonstrate how all the factors outlined previously interacted in order to create a functioning market that despite the underlying simplicity manifests with a great deal of complexity. In other words, complexity from simplicity.

This final chapter, as it nears its end, is a more philosophical view of the relationship between facts, inductive logic, empiricism and praxeology and how they create a probabilistic framework that a man can utilize to improve his success in the mating market, but which offers no guarantee of making the sale. It is the sad reality of business that one can have the perfect product, at the perfect time for a market, and yet fail to capture that market, such is the nature of the beast. The Red pill and game offers no certainty, but it illuminates darkness, aids in reducing uncertainty, and mitigate the effects of risk, but it can never eliminate them.

For more on Gendernomics, check out my book at amazon.com

Sources:

[1] http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rational-choice-theory.asp

[2] http://bigthink.com/errors-we-live-by/kahnemans-mind-clarifying-biases

[3] https://mises.org/library/praxeology-methodology-austrian-economics

[4] https://mises.org/sites/default/files/Human%20Action_3.pdf

[5] https://therationalmale.com/2012/09/25/your-friend-menstruation/

[6] http://newsinfo.iu.edu/news/page/normal/9226.html

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2 comments on “Gendernomics: On Value Part 5

  1. therealyekke says:

    I think the first thing that needs to be said is that imprinting of both women and men is a good predictor of what type of person (or the complete opposite) they will choose. The sexond thing that needs to be said is that the lack of physical attractiveness and virtue will lead to frustration about not atttacting the mate that they ‘deserve’, and the way this frustration is manifested is the bullet-point list the economist in me once saw as a rational approach. Not any more-it’s an admission of defeat at best, and a list of never to be attained attributes at worst. The 6 foot mark being the most egregious.
    Third, we are a naturally vain species, that hangs on to the maximum of perceived value in anything we do, witnessed by the ‘I still have IT’ nonsense endlessly perpetuated. I believe that this is caused by better food, sanitation, and healthcare- I have lived in countries and cultures where the difference between young and old was profound and intensely threatening. Fast forward to the US where a 40 year old with low mileage is essentially a 25 year old with a few wrinkles, even more so if they never had kids. In Africa, a 40 year old unless in a very few countries is the village elder with the same look as a western 90 year old.

    The market is irrational, the players
    In their prime are now completely irrational ( these are the ones that have NO ONE making coaching videos for), and only after they realize they are being used like rental cars do they wake up from playing the wolf’s game, and start playing the sheep game.

    Two dimensions can not adequately describe a primal, feral market, where at any time one of the participants can elect to take their chances on the SMP, the MMP, or anything in between (it’s been called the sexual shadow world by Rom Wills for a reason, Alan Roger Currie writes books about it).
    In a market there is a sale and then that transaction is done with. In sexuality, this concept doesn’t exist.

    I admire your effort but it’s not a nail, and you’re bringing a hammer.

    Rollo’s laying bare of the individual strategies of females has been most useful to me not for attraction but for the purpose of rejection- seeing through the mental games with The clarity of a much wiser man has helped me avoid getting the unworthy in one’s life.
    Now there is a field of economics that would be if benefit to the young guys, and that is the gender imbalance of mating, percentage-wise that is. Since dateonomics has laid bare that 58% female to 42% male college population is the tipping point at which soft harems form around desirable men, more work needs to be done to identify how this number can be games even further, and what behavioral tricks can be applied in a local area’s SMP to make females believe a scarcity of men exists to trigger behaviors that favor men for a change.

    Liked by 1 person

    • I talked about your assertion that the market is irrational in the post for a reason, namely to outline that “rational behavior” per rational choice theory [1]is not the same as the colloquial use of “rational”. Rational in colloquial use is typically understood as sensible, predictable, logical, clear headed and so on, whereas the requirements for behavior to be rational per rational choice theory is goal-oriented, reflective and consistent (across time and different choice situations).

      As for the sale argument, there are countless examples of this not being the case. For instance, most goods that you buy at a retailer have been sold multiple times already from the manufacturer to the distributor to the retailer, and after you buy it, you are free to re-sell it second-hand. In a stock market there is a continous stream of transactions in the same underlying, identical good. There are also purchasing agreements with SLAs, or licensing governed by various contractual limitations, such as purchase price + annual SLA + options etc. For instance, Rollo has mentioned attraction vs arousal (Beta bucks vs Alpha fucks)and this is an example of different choice criteria, and a preference for two different products, that a person or person can simultaneously be shopping for.

      Like

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